Real Madrid face Sevilla as Mbappe leads 2.5-backed Liga prediction

Published on: 17 October 2026

Real Madrid host direct rivals Sevilla at Santiago Bernabeu on 18 October 2026, with kick-off scheduled for 19:00 GMT. Nasser Eddy, a consultant for NCI Sport and presenter of the European Champions League on radio Nostalgie, expects the home side to strengthen their position in the ninth round of La Liga.

Real Madrid came close to a serious setback in midweek before producing a remarkable comeback against AS Roma in the second round of the Champions League league phase. Trailing 3-1 with 10 minutes remaining, Jose Mourinho’s side scored three times to win 4-3.

That match reflected Real Madrid’s recent form: an uncertain collective performance rescued by the quality of individual players, including Yan Diomande, who supplied an assist, and Kylian Mbappe, who scored in Italy.

Real Madrid are already six points behind FC Barcelona and cannot afford to drop points at home in their pursuit of the leaders. They have won more corners than their opponents in each of their last two matches and opened the scoring in six of the seven La Liga games in which they have scored this season.

Sevilla arrive in the Spanish capital with a 50% win rate and an encouraging start overall, although their results suggest they have struggled against the leading sides. They lost 3-1 to both Atletico de Madrid and FC Barcelona.

Their latest match, a chaotic 3-3 draw at Levante on Monday, featured a goal for each team in added time. The result again highlighted the contrast in Sevilla’s play: attacking explosiveness combined with defensive vulnerability. Luis Garcia’s team have the second-worst defence among the top 10 in La Liga and have not won the corner count in any of their last three league matches.

Head-to-head record

The recent history strongly favours Real Madrid. Sevilla have won none of the last 15 meetings, drawing only twice, while the Madrid club have taken the last five victories. Since 2008, Real Madrid have recorded 30 wins to Sevilla’s seven, with three draws in 40 matches.

Player to watch

Carlos Espi has quickly become one of Real Madrid’s most effective substitutes after joining from Levante a few weeks ago. He changed the game in Rome after coming off the bench, scoring the first of the three late goals that completed the comeback from 3-1 down.

The key 1xBet odds are 1.28 for a Real Madrid win, 9.5 for a 3-1 scoreline, 1.12 for Real Madrid to win the corner count, 1.33 for Mbappe to score at any time and 1.26 for Real Madrid to score first.

The recommended selections are a Real Madrid victory, potentially combined with both teams to score at odds of 2.5; a 3-1 exact score at 9.5; Real Madrid to win the corners at 1.12; Mbappe to score at 1.33; and Real Madrid to open the scoring at 1.26. Mbappe has seven goals in eight La Liga games and two in two Champions League matches.

Odds may change.

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